19th August

Morning Comments:

A rally on the Aussie dollar early in the European session was short lived and heavy selling soon followed. Renewed fears for both the US and European economies saw heavy selling on the AUD which shed 1.5% in morning trade.

The hit in US manufacturing during the last month was the catalyst, many had expected to see a slight decline or flatness in the data but instead were presented with a serious downturn in US manufacturing. Higher than expected jobless numbers in the US didn't help and then when a Morgan Stanley report hit the floor suggesting that Europe and the USA are all but in recession then no one could stand in the way.

With weekly US wheat export sales within the trade expected range most of the pressure on wheat was from the outside markets. Some analyst see a close lower tonight as a signal the bounce is over for now and the contract highs may well be in. With the USDA due to amend US production data again before the end of September I'm not so sure there won't be another bounce it will just be interesting to see from how far down the bounce will come.

The charts tell you Dec 11 CBOT wheat is over bought, so technically another close lower tonight could be viewed as bearish and create some selling into the first half of next week. European futures all closed lower with Paris rapeseed the hardest hit losing E5.00/t on the Feb 12 contract.

ICE canola was also lower as CBOT soybean futures slipped a little. At the moment the e session at Chicago see's both corn and wheat lower. Speculation over Russian production has a few analyst assuming the current numbers the Soviet government are showing the rest of the world maybe a little conservative, bumper year's in the past have produced around 10-15% more than current reports would leave you to believe.

Weather:

We may see some patchy clouds move in from the SE through the day but with the low cell now off the east coast significant falls are well to our east. A mass of cloud over SA is riding a high into WNSW and is not expected to produce rain as it moves east. Expect cool conditions to persist over the weekend the balance of August expected to be dry. The first week of Sept could see a shower.

Afternoon Comments:

ASX milling wheat is trading at $258 for the Jan 12 contract, the curent bid / offer is $257 / $261. Track sorghum is dead this afternoon with little interest in the buy side, some tonnage changed hands at $232 but volume has been minimal. Sorghum delivered Inghams Cardiff is still bid in the low $240's but is attracting little interest from the seller, this may lead you to think a higher offer may get set if you have some very dry sorghum to offer. Sorghum into Tamworth continues to be a non event with little or spasmodic interest from the trade. The dollar is sitting in the lower portion of today's trading range but many expect continued weakness in tonights European and US session. E session corn and wheat at Chicago are both fractionally lower but offer little guidance as to the possible direction of the day session at this stage. All new and old crop wheat contracts were lower today on the back of lower US futures, fluctuating currency and outside markets.

Morning Comments:

Some more upside in corn as US money flowed back from gold to the grains. Gold lost over $40/oz as the US stock market advanced.

The USDA left corn acres unchanged at what some believe is a ridiculously high 92.3ma, maybe they'll change it to a more realistic number when they remove the ethanol blenders credit completely to help buffer the sudden decline that will create. But they did amend the average yield estimate to 153bu/ac, that's a little below the average trade guess prior to the report hence the nice move higher in corn futures last night. This was somewhat countered by adjustments in beginning stocks and US consumptions but by the time you get to the bottom line there was still a reduction in the stocks to use ratio, with corn now sitting at only 5.4% in the US.

The US soybean stocks to use ratio was also adjusted lower resulting in a nice rally in oilseed futures, including canola at Paris and Winnipeg.

Wheat was not as bullish in the report with an increase of 0.3% in the US StoU ratio. A closer look at the grade breakdown in wheat shows a reduction in durum, now pegged at 1.55mt, this will leave them with about 1/3 of the ending stocks they started the season with. Spring wheat was also cut aggressively with total production now estimated to be down almost 790kt to 12.92mt on last months numbers. With slight increases in HRW and SWW the spring wheat loss accounts for the entire adjustment lower in US wheat production in this report. All in all the report supports lower wheat prices in general as world ending stocks were increased again but with lower milling wheat output we should see strong grade spreads for APH and DR1 in 2011. Support was mainly spill over from the row crops.

Looks for a solid day with gains in feed grains mainly.

Weather:

Southerly air flow should gradually turn to the east as the weekend progresses. Tomorrow a weak upper level low over central QLD will create a trough line that extends into NNSW but this is not expected to create any storms. On shore airflow Monday may produce some coastal showers east of the ranges. Rain Wednesday, 20 - 30mm in the Riverina with falls of 10 - 15mm possibly to the LPP.

By Lunchtime:

Sorghum is up nicely on the back of the move in US corn futures. This change has been dissapointing so we may be starting to see some dry weather premium creeping into the Newcastle and Brisbane track zones too.

Sorghum is trading in volume at $237 Newcastle less the upcountry site deduction while delivered Newcastle bids have jumped to $245 this morning, Tamworth delivery is also possible at $222 for sorghum.

New crop wheat bids have stabilized as traders look at increasing world stocks and competition from the Black Sea.

New crop durum was up a few on bullish USDA data, we just need Canada to show their hand now and we should be able to get a good feel from demand and grade spreads leading into harvest. New crop wheat basis is strong, and so well it should be but it is only reflecting a small weather premium, most of the hieght has been generated by the stronger AUD.

As I write the dollar is still in the low 1.03s while e session corn at Chicago is slightly higher and wheat is flat. ASX milling wheat is untraded with a $271 / $265.50 bid / offer.

Over the last few days the bulk of the business on the ASX appears to be getting done very late in the session. Bid sheet to follow later in the day.

Daily Comments August 3rd 2011

Morning Comments:

Well today should be interesting. Corn traded steadily higher all session dragging wheat along for the ride. With corn locked limit up tonight we'll see expanded limits. Funds were big buyers, picking up 2.5mt of corn and 680kt of wheat at Chicago. Soybean futures were also higher and dragged ICE canola up by almost $10 / t.

I'm not convinced this kind of rally is sustainable given the fundamental and global price competition of grain but if you believe the US markets are attached to reality than you are a little deluded aren't you, you would probably believe a carbon tax is the way to go too.

Some analyst are saying this rally is based around US weather and the rain that is helping corn is hurting wheat, ok if so then why would corn rally.

I'm a little inclined to think that someone is assuming that the US corn and wheat acres are going to be amended in the WASDE next week, inside running ? who knows, let's just see what the day brings here, we should be able to get close to some sale values that were indicated two weeks ago, it may take an extra dollar or two to see those offers now though thanks to a complete lack of July rain.

The European markets were not as convinced that the market should rally, instead they were happy to see another session end in the red across the board. All but rapeseed posted modest losses or in the case of malt, substantial losses. Paris rapeseed was up a couple of euro in a lethargic market. The Europeans are still consumed by their own debt crisis and finished trading before the US senate made it rain $100 bills and fixed the US debt crisis, this also fixed the climbing aussie dollar which posted a loss of almost 2% through the session.

Today could be one of caution or a selling frenzy, take your pick, but keep an eye on the sky.

Weather:

A strong low in the southern ocean will push into the bite and drive cold conditions into SA by the weekend. The associated low will push into western Victoria through the weekend producing rain across VIC and SNSW. A trough line is expected to develop across much of NSW producing falls of 5 - 10mm from Saturday through to Monday across the NSW wheat belt. Dry after the change.

Afternoon Comments:

Well sorghum almost done a hammy getting out of the blocks this morning, old crop has traded at $200 ex farm Liverpool Plains throughout the morning and track has been bid up to $228 or $227 on seven day terms, Newcastle less rail.

Old crop wheat is firmer bar APH which seems to be reflecting some of the sentiment that grade spreads may reduce as hot weather in the US is more inducive to higher protien wheat this year.

Feed grades are all firmer as is new crop milling wheat on a multi grade, shame the rainfall forecast wasn't as bullish.

I've scoured the internet and wires looking for a good reason why the US markets rallied so strongly last night, so far I've not found one, one analyst has gone as far as to call it a "fat finger trade", remember the chaos when that merchant punched in too many zero's on a CBOT wheat order in early 2008.

The guys at the ASX seem less than convinced that this market is going to get up and run away with the spread between the bid and the offer in milling wheat blowing out to $7 this afternoon, $260 / $267.

The e session at Chicago isn't giving anything away either with corn flat and wheat slightly softer.

If you are a seller of old crop sorghum off the Liverpool Plains give me a call, I know it is dry but this may just be an opportunity to scale up sell into this market.

Crop Report On The Liverpool Plains

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JJHBpWjAFE

Well the sky didn't fall, the US are not "technically" broke just yet so quick get on eBay and buy, buy, buy all that stuff you couldn't afford when it was a couple of dollars to dear a month or two ago. Seriously though, did anyone even think they were ever going to default ?

Corn traded higher at CBOT on prospects that the crop condition report will be back 2%, well the report came in on email this morning and the corn rating is unchanged so expect to see a few traders head for the door between now and Thursday weeks USDA World Ag Supply and Demand report.

Wheat futures were pretty much unchanged, there is the whole "heat makes protein" argument going on with the spread trade at the moment as the US and Canadian spring wheat belt get a good dose of summer but one thing heat does not make is tonnes and with the big reduction we saw in durum acres that is what they need. Actually the US spring wheat crop condition rating is back a couple of percent, I wonder if the trade can ignore this or whether the futures market will hand Russia the opportunity to increase its offer price to Egypt at the next tender.

The weather market in the US must have almost ran its race, rain is tipped for much of the corn belt this week while the southern cotton belt remains abnormally hot and dry. The durum regions of NW North Dakota should see some storms to help fill grain.

European futures were flat at best with most grains, bar rapeseed, closing fractionally lower. A public holiday in Canada saw the ICE closed so we'll need to wait until tomorrow to see what they are up to. On the local front there is more and more interest in the weather conditions from the trade but so far this is not transforming into demand.

Look for a sideways day with stronger feed grains.

Weather

Cloud should increase from the west late in the day or early tomorrow as a weak trough line moves across the area, forecasters do not expect to see rain from this change. They do expect to see temperatures move into the mid 20s though. By the weekend a solid front is expected to push over NNSW producing up to 20mm on Sunday or Monday, models are still conflicting though.